Thursday, September 14, 2006

Precious Metals Complex Down

The stock market traded fairly dull again on Thursday and we really have very little say about it except that it looks very tired.  The volume dropped down a little from the previous few days and declines were decidedly more than advancers on the NYSE.  The market is like a little kid trying to stay awake but those eyes keep closing, the stock market is trying to stay up but the battle will be lost.

One area that jumped out at us as we were reviewing the market was the precious metals complex.  Gold and silver were down fairly hard and took the HUI down with them.  The HUI was down 13.50 to just under 300 at 298.76.  This brings us closer to our entry point but it is still pretty far away.  We were looking at the 250 range so there is still some 20% downside to go.  PAAS, our favorite little silver company was down strongly under 20 on the close at 19.31.  A 20% drop from here would put us just under 16 which seems to be a good number to look at for a starting point.  We will of course be watching very carefully once this stock goes to that area and the HUI gets back to 250.  All in good time.

Tomorrow, we see the latest inflation numbers in the CPI.  The market would like to see confirmation that the Fed will indeed stop raising rates for good.  They should read our posts because then they would know that the Fed is done with increases.  The question is “How long until we get a reduction?”

The week was not kind to our portfolio but we don’t think we have much longer to wait for a decline.  The last two days have been setting the top in place.  But, it looks like we probably will need to wait until next week.  See you back here then.

Dow Industrials:  11,527.39  -15.93
QQQQ:  39.99
RYVNX:   20.34
RYAIX:  23.40
RYCWX:  40.54
TLT:  87.53
BEGBX:  13.66

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