Monday, September 04, 2006

Happy New Year

Last Friday’s jobs’ report was just right, the Goldilocks’ scenario played out perfectly for the market.  There were just enough jobs to make sure that the economy was still moving forward but not too many to cause the Fed to push up interest rates.  As far as the manufacturing data, those numbers were still in growth mode but not anything that would disturb the Fed.  So, on yet another low volume day, the market managed to surge ahead.

Our best guess is that the market will have trouble maintaining this lift over the next couple of months.  We do tend to be bearish when it comes to the fall period of time and this being the middle year of the presidential cycle, we are even more bearish.  That strategy has not served us too well over the past month or so but we are standing our ground and may be adding to our short positions.  We don’t have too much cash available because we are already committed in most of the funds but what we have left seems to be destined to enter the market this week.  In case you were wondering, we were going to sell into these higher prices, not be long stocks.

We should get a good look at what the market thinks over the next few days and we will certainly be back here to let you know our thoughts.  In the mean time, make sure you take the opportunity of the “new year” for a fresh start for your portfolio and see how you can improve it.  We would think there must be some things you would like to improve upon.  

Dow Industrials:  11,464.15  +83.00
QQQQ:  39.08
RYVNX:   21.26
RYAIX:  23.90
RYCWX:  40.94
TLT:  87.76
BEGBX:  13.80

No comments: