Thursday, September 28, 2006

Nirvana Was Brief

Looking at the closing price of the Dow, you can see that we missed a new all time high in the Dow by 4 points but we did trade above the magical number earlier in the day.  Now the questions are was that Nirvana and did you enjoy it?  Well, just because the Dow is near a new high doesn’t mean we are anywhere near that in the other major indexes.  There is similar speculation in the market as we had back in the early part of 2000 when the Dow created its all time high.  The general tone of the market is a soft sort of up move without much punch, almost like it is floating on air.  

The GDP final revision was somewhat down from the last revision and down from expectations.  This didn’t seem to bother the market all that much.  During the morning, the market started strong and then fell for a couple of hours.  Around noon the market seemed to stop going down and there was a continuous rally into the close such that we probably went out near the highs in the indexes.  

There is very little to say this evening as the market continues its course of churning ahead.  We strongly believe that the market is struggling to maintain these levels and once they break we will see a severe decline in the indexes.  We did think that this decline would start sooner than this and we are disappointed to be watching our portfolio shrink on what seems to be a daily basis.  But we are still up on the year and we are well positioned should the market rally run out of speed as we expect.  

The end of the quarter is upon us tomorrow and now we slide into October with the elections in about a month.  We are trying to be patient.  There will be more opportunities for us as we go forward.  I do not and have not felt good about any long positions in the last month during this rally; certainly nothing we follow looked bullish.  We will continue to monitor the situation and try to provide the best objective market analysis possible.  Have a good weekend and we will return next week for what we hope will be a roll over in the market.  

Dow Industrials:  11,718.45  +29.21
VIX: 11.72
QQQQ:  40.83
RYVNX:   19.54
RYAIX:  22.96
RYCWX:  39.41
TLT:  89.52
BEGBX:  13.73

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