Top Line: The stock market spent most of the day simply going down and we would say the trend has turned down. And, that we May finally be back in sync.
The news on new home sales was included in the "reasons" the market went down today but that doesn't really answer the question why sell stocks when new home sales aren't as expected? The market can think anything it wants and today it was in the mood to sell stocks regardless of the news.
Take a look at GDX and you will see that it has been on a mission lower the last week or so. Since Monday morning's spurt above 47 it has dropped to close at 41.87 today, a 10% move in three days. When we said we would consider buying it in 30's, we didn't think it might be this week. It's not in the 30's just yet but that's less than 2 points away.
You may have noticed the chatter about how the mining stocks have taken a beating when gold itself has only dropped a little. We say that the stocks move in front of the metal so we would expect the metal itself to drop following mining stocks down. We will see.
The catalyst for all of this is the strong dollar coming off its lows over the past few days. After the incredibly negative press on the dollar, the dollar refuses to go down anymore. The result is a sudden change in the playing field for commodities and the stock market. Even Treasury bonds have been strong the past few days, in spite of the huge supply coming to market this week.
It may be that GDX is too oversold to go down anymore but we don't recommend buying it at this time. We will take a look at it if we see a three handle (in the 30's) on it. Until then it's a falling knife and it should be avoided.
All we can say this evening is we are now glad to be short. A sudden drop is not out of the question. Take a look at our company, ING. They announced a restructure and the stock has lost 30% in three days. We wouldn't suggest that is how the overall market will trade but it is in the realm of possible. As we have noticed, there seems to be a lot of pent up selling.
The opinions we read today were quite bullish actually which we like. The headlines were that this is a buying opportunity not a correction??? This is different from what we have been hearing and should allow the sellers to continue their quest.
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I have a web site where I give advise on penny stocks and stocks under five dollars. I have many many years of experience with these type of stocks. If their is anyone that is interested in these type of stocks you can check ouy my web site by just clicking my name. I would like to comment . I do not think that we will see real improvement in the economy until we see sustainable job growth. Recently the number of jobs created has been running around two hundred thousand a month.The GDP report that just came out recently was only 2% this is not nearly high enough to sustain employment growth of two hundred thousand jobs a month Another factor holding things back is stagnation of wages and benifits. This is good for business owners but terrible news for workers.
I have a web site where I give advise on penny stocks and stocks under five dollars. I have many many years of experience with these type of stocks. If their is anyone that is interested in these type of stocks you can check out my web site by just clicking my name. I would like to take a moment to talk about low price stocks not classic penny stocks or stocks under one dollar the term most people most often think of when the word penny stock is used. Their are companies of really decent quality trading under five dollars’ but for every one company trading under five dollars that is of decent quality their are maybe ten of poor quality. So the really big difference between those investors that are tremendously successfull when it comes to investing in low price stocks and those investors that lose enormous amounts of money investing in stocks under five dollars’ is having a great deal of knowledge and experience when it comes to low price stocks’ or having a total lack of knowledge and experience when it comes to low price stocks. Finding quality stocks under five dollars requires a lot more research than finding a decent stock above ten dollars.
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