Top Line: There is significant lack of upward momentum but the stock market seems to float higher every day. The wind should be blowing in a different direction very soon.
We saw the big announcement that Bernanke is being allowed to run the Fed for another term. And, while that may not have been the reason for the early rally that day, it seemed like a good high profile news story to bring the last of the bulls in to buy. We don't always get a bell to ring signaling the high for the move so this may not be it.
The market started getting tired this week, no more tired than we are...waiting for the market to turn over. The first moves are not going to be big but the turn should be very close if not very noticeable. This is giving you a good chance to get out of your positions. We think there could be a significant drop, enough to warrant selling some of your holdings. We do think there will be a good chance to get back in a little later, say later in September.
If you want to hold onto your positions through this sell off, you can, but the odds of this recent move being a top are more than zero. We are pretty sure that the market will make new highs near our target of 1234 in the SP500 because the public is just now starting to get excited about the bull move. There needs to be a sell off to scare some of them off but then a large rally should spring out of the next low. This rally should get Everyone excited about the possibilities and that's when we will unequivocally sell our long stock positions. The point being that you can close your eyes for this drop especially if you are in taxable positions that could be long term gains if you hold them for another few months.
For now, we recommend selling at least some of your holdings, especially if they're in a retirement account where gains are not taxable right now.
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6 comments:
It's very likely that the strength this morning was the last gasp for the market. The market has reversed lower in spite of the "good" news from INTC and DELL. We have suggested that you sell with our title and we couldn't emphasize it any more now.
I believe that the main reason most investors are not more successful is simply because when theirs and kind of panic they are unable to control their impluse to sell.They also buy popular stocks when their overpriced.
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