Sunday, August 23, 2009

Is It Possible for the Market to Go Down?!?

Top Line: We didn't get any selling at all and the market seems like it wants to go even higher. The market may Feel like it wants to go higher but that's not an emotion that you should be paying attention together.

With the market moving higher, we deem the market to be ever more dangerous. We would recommend taking the opportunity to sell into this strength. We know that the most likely situation is that the market will resolve to the upside over the next few months but it is well overbought right now. So, if you decide to get off the risk for now, there may be a rush to get back in if we get an opportunity.

The possibilities are endless about how the market will move. This is the last week of the month and the market has been strong recently. Last Monday's big drop was severely bought and gave the market four days of straight up to make up for that loss and then some. This evening the futures are higher after the Japanese market jumped on the gun, up 3% as we write.

The end of the month is coming and the end of vacations is also over. The real traders will be back soon. Friday's volume was a little heavier than we've seen over the past few weeks but it was options' expiration which normally boosts trading. The next week or two should start to see some higher volume as people come back from the Hampton's or where ever they are. We have not been trading nearly as much over the past few weeks due either.

When the market dropped last Monday, many bears came out of hiding. This was a clue that the bullishness had dissipated at least little. We are surprised that this was enough to push the market up as much as it did and with possible more upside early this week. We are patiently waiting for a pullback that is worthy of the rally we have seen over the past week.

Our main focus is the level of the market. Last week we thought that 1018 in the SP500 would hold any rally but that obviously did not hold. Now, the market has thrown itself over that level and created a lot of extra bullishness...this Should be enought to get us a selloff. We'll see.


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The markets are never predictable.