Big Early Turnaround

Top Line: That didn't really look like more downside and that is the reason we say that surprises are to the upside. We still favor more downside to get rid of the excess bullishness but the market may have other plans.

Today the Dow gained nearly 3% and the other major indexes were up that much, too. These rally days are the reason we say that you should not touch your core holdings. Except that GDX didn't manage to do much, the rest of our stocks had good moves. We have already commited to these positions some time ago and they should serve us well for the coming decline and subsequent rally.

At any rate, the current rally could extend a little further as we finish up this pattern. From there we should see a small pullback into the late May early June period which could give us some good buying opportunities.

By the way, don't think that Lowe's was the main event on Monday. Lowe's may have got the juices flowing but it isn't enough to push the entire market up 3%. When the market goes up 3% when it's supposed to be going down, then the Market is the main event.

We had some family visiting this evening so the post is necessarily rushed.