Thursday, April 02, 2009

Dow Crosses 8000 Briefly

Top Line: The Dow jumped over the 8000 mark on Thursday but couldn't hold it. 22 points away. So, you have seen it, do you believe it? The Dow closed 1500 points above its March 6th low.

Media coverage suggested that there were some important news items that drove the market up today. The big one is that the FASB relaxing the mark to market rules. We thought we wanted More transparency from our financial companies. Those assets that are difficult to value because there really isn't a market for them can be valued at any amount the company thinks is appropriate.

The other idea was the G-20's promise of nirvana coming. Maybe they didn't say nirvana, just an important inflection point, but the media gave them some credit for the rally. Really.

No media source gave us the Elliott Wave 3 argument that we suggested ??? That's ok, we don't want them to know everything, do we?

After hours Research in Motion (RIMM), one of the members of our FSI (four horsemen fame) announced good news and popped the stock as well as the futures. News like this shouldn't give us much in the way of solid price movement but good news from these tech firms does surprise the markets a little.

Oil was up quite a bit and the dollar and T bonds were down. This makes good sense. That gold was down hard is a head scratcher??? We had heard on Wednesday that the ECB (European Central Bank) sold 35 tons of gold in the recent past which could be a reason that gold has had a rough go of it recently. Then today (Thursday) the G-20 made some comments on selling gold which did some more damage to the market.
In terms of our portfolio, GDX was a drag today and we are getting tired of seeing this stock in the 30's. No, we don't want to see the 20's again but we are waiting patiently for the 40's. GDX traded in the 30's in December. The chart does look like it wants to make a run up very soon.

One item of interest on today's stunning rally was that the VXO closed Up on the day. That means that traders were bidding up puts as the market moved up, a very unusual event. This is very encouraging to us that the market is going to continue its rally.

And, last but probably least, is the jobs' report that is due out on Friday morning. The expectations are that over 670K jobs were lost last month and that the unemployment rate jumped to 8.5% (from 8.1%). Will this have any effect on the market? If it does it will be short lived because the market is definitely Expecting bad news.


Anonymous said...

Hi Glen,
I was happy for 2 big reasons tonight when I checked your blog. 1st, that Jackson is walking!!! And cruising pretty far already!!! How exciting. I know how hard everyone worked at it in Hawaii and I did just ask Pam last week if he was walking and of course it was a "no". Now, I learn on the blog that he started a few days ago! I am going to get after Pam when I see her for not telling us...maybe she doesn't want to be one of those crazy grandparents that can't stop talking about their grandbabies but really!!!!

Secondly, I am happy for the market rally. I am seriously thinking of getting out of this GAME when it hits , what, 9000, 9500, should I wait for 10???? It is just crazy and no place for amateurs. I don't want to sound unappreciative of your expertise but I just don't know if this is the best way to save for retirement.. I am open to any of your feedback. You do an awesome job with this blog. DT

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