Sunday, February 08, 2009

Wednesday Update at a Luau

[Editor's note: The Update will be suspending posts for the next ten days. We realize that this is a poor time to be having a vacation but it's been planned for several months. The Update will return in two weeks or maybe less.]

We apologize for the lack of posts in the next couple of weeks but we do need a break. The market seems to be on a roller coaster ride with an upward bias so that's what we are looking for over the next several trading days.

Tonight the futures are falling but that doesn't generally mean much for the live trading the following day. We think there is a good possibility for a strong rally while we're gone. If so, we will be looking to take some profits...that would be nice.

Right now, and for the past few months, we have been steadfastly buying cheap assets expecting a strong rally some time this year. We had a few dollars left over so we bought some stock last week as we mentioned. Thursday and Friday were good turn around days. Over the weekend the traders are getting nervous because of all the activity in Washington. Our position is that whatever they do will be bullish for commodities and stocks, and not so bullish for bonds, in fact down right bearish for bonds.

GDX looks ready to break out over its 200 day SMA but it may need one last retreat under it to get enough steam to power above it for good. We expect a pop above that line sometime soon with a run to the high 30's if not 40. We'll see how high it can go on this run. If something significant occurs, we will be watching and may make comments in the comment section if we can.

As for stocks generally, the strong reversal last week led to a strong advance. People have been convinced to sell all rallies and this is no exception. As we see rallies that cause people to run after stocks instead of selling them, we will start to think about selling our positions. Until then, we just wait.

Have a good couple of weeks.

4 comments:

Anonymous said...

Luau? That would suggest Hawaii? I'm jealous. Especially since the markets have fallen out of bed this morning despite the treading water act yesterday. Go GDX, go... Received some birthday money and was considering a paid subscription to Fleck unless you had a better suggestion for a daily paid column.

Thanks in advance,
Erick

Anonymous said...

Erick, I do have a good subscription for you...send me an email and I'll let you know what it is.

All,
In the mean time Elliott Wave is having free week. You need to sign up for the service but it is free for a week starting today, Wednesday.

elliottwave.com

Glenn

Yes, Hawaii is a good time.

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