Wednesday, September 10, 2008

Just the Facts Tonight

Top Line: The Lehman earnings news was not pretty but the market seemed prepared for worse as the market opened fairly strong. As the day wore on, the Dow managed a gain of about 125 points before ending up only 38. With the Fed meeting coming up next week, the market may now be a little distorted for the next week or so. Still, we are Significantly bearish.

Tonight's post is mostly just stats and very little to no analysis. We'll be back tomorrow.

The US futures are down along with the Asian markets tonight. The stock market is on the edge and is just about ready to fall off...that is the primary focus right now.

As it is Wednesday evening and since we just made another recommendation in our last post, we thought it appropriate to take a look at our current position.

Our Position (from our August 7th post, August 19th post, and the August 26th post):

Bearish on US stocks, Dow target of 9000 (timing is close)
Bearish on Gold, target of $600. (possibly a little aggressive)
Bearish on Oil, target of $100. (possibly a little timid as oil traded at $101 today)
Still Bearish on US Residential Real Estate, no real target
Bullish on US Treasury bonds, ETF TLT target of 100 (may be the maximum, sell into strength)
Bullish on US Dollar, target 90 (now at 80 and ready for a short term pullback)
Bullish on Volatility, VXO to 50

So, not much change here but we want to add some others:

As we mentioned in our last post, Gold mining stocks are ready for purchase and we thought they may give us some slightly better prices today which they did. GDX traded down to 27.43 after closing at 28.10 on Tuesday. This opportunity may be available over the next few weeks but for today, it probably was the best long term buy along with several other gold mining stocks including the ones we mentioned in yesterday's post.

Bullish on GDX, target, well, let's start with 50 (September 10th)
Bullish on BGEIX, target about 25 (September 10th, 14.07)

HUI: 268.73 +8.48

FSI: 72.55 (lowest close since March 19th...actually March 20th)

VXO: 27.39 -0.49 (heading up to 50)

SDS: 70.04 -0.80
QID: 49.06 -0.46

Dow Industrials: 11,268.92 +38.19

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