Monday, May 19, 2008

Key Reversal Day

Top Line: The stock market saw an intraday reversal that, in the NASDAQ 100 (NDX) at least, creates a very bearish picture indeed. We see the Dow did Not reverse into negative territory but that is also not a bad sign for bears.

We have been a little uncomfortable that the NASDAQ indexes were stronger than the Dow but on Monday that changed a little. With the Dow staying positive and above 13K at the same time the NASDAQ was reversing early gains into losses, the picture is becoming more and more focused for us.

The Dow is the main index the public pays attention to and Monday gives everyone a little warm fuzzy feeling being above that magic? 13K line. Meanwhile the world was collapsing around the Dow as the NDX reversed from a high of 2050 (closing an open gap from earlier) to a trading low of 2005 before closing around 2016.

Fleck tells us that the main trigger may have been one of the techs, SanDisk, SNDK, making a poor announcement. They were a little disturbed by the price of oil because it was cutting into their profit...but did they mention that the business they are in, flash, is suffering price declines? No, we didn't think so.

As for the Horsemen, they had a rough afternoon, except for AMZN which posted enough gains to benefit our little index. Otherwise all of these four stocks reversed into the close with AMZN the only one up on the day.

Here we are again, late in the evening...too many things going on this evening to get a good Update post up. We'll try again tomorrow. In short, be out, as in, in cash. OK?

FSI: 95.27 (not down much but Down)

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