Ah, The Fed...

Top Line: Analysis is only as useful as it matches up to the reaction that Will Be happening right after 1:15 CDT on Wednesday. That's when the Fed announces its latest effort to give confidence to the markets. We have stepped into the short side of the market in anticipation of a possible drop in the market after their news. Our position anticipates that the Fed can't say anything that would move the Dow up much.

As everyone waits for the Fed, we think their past cuts of about 3% have done just about nothing, so waiting for another one seems pointless. There are other things the Fed has done to enhance liquidity in this "credit crisis" and, while we have lw confidence that what they are doing can save the world, we understand that they have had to do something.

Similarly, the government seems to think they need to do something, too. This is reasonable, too, given the severity of the situation. Recent reviews on Hope Now have Not been raving about success. Plus, foreclosures are increasing faster than anyone thought possible at the start of the government involvement. Yes, we know, they're from the government and they're here to help us. Right. We received an email from a loyal reader who shared this article on the subject. You are correct, CM, Ouch, mind boggling numbers...

In a followup to last night's post, where we started out by saying, "First" when we didn't say anything was "Second" because we really got down the path of real estate again. So, here tonight is, "Second"...

On Friday this week we get to hear about the job situation as reported by the BLS, yes, there is an L in the middle so as not to be confused with other abbreviations. That said, the forecast for jobs is to have another negative month, down 75K. On Wednesday we get to see the ADP report which is trying to get some credibility but, still, no one has really paid too much attention to this report. ADP is expected to show a 60K decline in jobs for the month which is close to the estimate for the "real" jobs' report.

We read that the US jobs may take another tumble over the next several months causing more downward spiraling of the mortgage defaults. This news comes right when the bulls are starting to believe in the rally. Well, we don't think there is much chance for the Dow to breach the 13K level and that will favor a downward descent very soon. But, first the Fed...

Speaking of highs in market indexes, we noticed the effort expended on Tuesday to get the market up but again the effort failed with an end of day selloff much like Monday. The difference is that the move wasn't quite as big. We're not sure why we should be paying much attention to these few hours of trading right before a Fed announcement but we try to see what the market has to say even if the Fed has something else to say. We wait...

FSI: 91.34 (another good day for speculation, nearing completion)

Jackson was asking whether Grampa really knew what he was talking about...smart kid.