Sunday, February 25, 2007

Dearly "Departed" Wins

[Editor’s note: Tonight’s post has been delayed and shortened by our Oscar diversion.  Please accept our apologies.]

Market Action:
Friday’s action saw some deterioration in the early going but the rest of the day showed little action at all.  The major averages ended down on the day, in sync for a change, except for the SOX.  The Philadelphia Semi-Conductor index rallied once again after its big move on Thursday.  

Opinion/ Analysis:
The rally in the SOX has been somewhat responsible for the strength in the NASDAQ indexes compared to the Dow/SP 500.  The Dow has now put in three down days in a row at the same time the SOX has been moving up steadily.  

In the next few days the market faces the end of the month strength.  With the all important jobs’ report being pushed into next week, the market is free to do what it wants this week.  We think the Dow has shown us a solid down pattern and now is in a position to make an upward move to correct that weakness.  We look for a small rally.  The NASDAQ indexes have not seem much in the way of downside so we want to encourage them to sit back and watch a little strength in the Dow.

Upcoming News Events for the Week:
January durable goods orders—Tuesday
February consumer confidence—Tuesday
January existing home sales—Tuesday
Q4 GDP figures—Wednesday
February Chicago PMI—Wednesday
New home sales—Wednesday
February ISM manufacturing index—Thursday
Sorry, no jobs’ report this week—Next Week Friday

Dow Industrials:  12,647.48  -38.54
VIX: 10.58
VIXEC.X: 1.10  (just the bid, until it’s sold)
HUI:  357.29
QQQQ:  45.26
RYVNX:   15.89
RYAIX:  20.77
RYCWX:  34.72
TLT:  88.84
BEGBX:  13.72

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