Tuesday, January 02, 2007

A New Year Begins

Welcome back from the long holiday weekend that got extended one day due to President Ford’s memorial service. Or, maybe welcome back after a long holiday time off from before Christmas until now. Tuesday was indeed different what with being at work and the stock market not being open.

With the extra day off, it seems that the market is winding tighter and tighter for a moon shot on Tuesday at the open. With the Dow near record highs, a new record there would not be difficult. Actually, we kind of expect it based on our stance that the Dow will make a final new high sometime in the next couple of weeks, final high meaning one that holds for a while. Once the Dow turns down, the rest of the market seems positioned to go down with it.

The big news out on Tuesday was Lennar’s announcement that home sales had not bottomed and they were going to take a material hit to earnings for some readjustments they were making. The homebuilders have enjoyed some higher stock prices along with the stock market run since summer but the turn in prices may not be supported by the actual business. We will see. The bond market did trade a little on Tuesday and was up on this news. This evening, the stock futures are showing some strong upward bias pointing to some early strength on Wednesday, the first trading day of 2007.

We mentioned that we were considering a new format for 2007 and we think that still makes some sense. Rather than a complete random posting, we thought maybe some standard titled sections so you could skip right to the section you would be interested in reading. Right now we would be experimenting but our interest lies mostly in the tech stocks, the precious metals and mining stocks, and an occasional look at the financials. We do sort of dabble in bonds and some other things once in a while but we want to be more focused in our primary areas.

With that in mind, we will start working on this new format this week. Please comment if you like. Since this is just a thought at the moment, it can easily be changed.

Hope you had a good New Year’s weekend. Now we finally open the stock market for the new year, too. The early blast should be interesting.

Closing prices for 2006
Dow Industrials: 12,463.15 -38.37
VIX: 11.56
QQQQ: 43.16
RYVNX: 17.21
RYAIX: 21.53
RYCWX: 35.38
TLT: 88.43
BEGBX: 13.78

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