Wednesday, March 15, 2006

Another Up Day

Not much to say on the evening of the new relative highs in the Dow and the SP500, except that prices are up in these two large cap indexes.  We have seen the market move up for all kinds of reasons that are either justified or rationalized by the market.  We don’t happen to agree with the logic of the market but the large caps have definitely risen in this last week or so, higher than we thought they should or might.

We spent considerable time describing the retracement levels for the NASDAQ Comp and thought a nice level would be somewhere between 2278 and 2296.  Tuesday’s close was nice due to the extreme nature of the move, sort of climactic as it played out.  The closing price was near our 2296 level we talked about several sessions ago.  We preferred ‘the move back to 2296 and maybe a little higher but it should Stay Under the 2325 from last Friday” which was Friday the third of March.  Wednesday the index closed at 2311 and we still think the 2325 will hold.  Time will tell because we have lost some of the other indexes to new relative highs so it’s possible the Comp will move up too.  

We do Not prefer this move back above 2325 in the Comp.  We like it that the large caps, mostly the Dow, have moved to new relative highs and have left these smaller cap indexes behind.  We continue to count on this line of thinking.  In any event, the market’s momentum high seems to be stuck back in January and now it’s simply holding on to the hope.  

Be careful out there…

Dow Industrials:  11,209.77  +58.43
RYVNX:   18.40
RYAIX:  21.85
TLT:  88.32
BEGBX:  13.01

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