The stock market continues to be overbought and we are firmly bearish at least for a modest correction of this big up move. I am posting on Thursday morning right after the opening bell and there seems to be a weak start on the street. We saw a weak start on Tuesday morning that didn't stick but the market is more overbought today than Tuesday. Volume has been fairly strong and has been on higher prices. This has been expected with the first week of the year normally used to commit funds. This may be a bullish thing but for now, we need at least a correction of the move.
The news this morning is that the trade deficit narrowed last month. On the surface there are any number of conclusions to draw from that, not the least of which is that Americans bought less overall last month. We think that the consumer will pull in their horns this year due to their ATM's not furnishing them with enough cash to continue spending above their needs. The consumer will need to start paying the debt that has built up over the past ten years. These events will cause a recession.
The other news is the price of oil persistently rising over the past few days, North of $64 this morning. The market has had to deal with higher oil and higher interest rates and has risen in the face of these things. The time is soon coming when that will not be the case.
This is necessarily quick (and late) but I wanted to post something to let you know that I am still here. We weren't able to put a good post up last night due to some other commitments that came up at the last minute before I drafted the post. We should be back to normal this evening.
Thanks for your patience
Dow Industrials: 11,043.44 +31.86
RYVNX: 16.99
RYAIX: 20.92
TLT: 90.89
BEGBX: 13.37
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
No comments:
Post a Comment