Tuesday, May 10, 2005

Hedge Funds Drag the Market Down

Today's market decided to pay attention to various rumors about Hedge Fund trading. The rumor was that a large hedge fund needed to liquidate some major holdings even though these things really can't be confirmed. The fact that the market traded down on this news related item seems to present two different thoughts. The first is that the market wants to go down, it just needs a reason. The second is that the market is searching for a point of support.

The best I can say is that the market is not very strong and the players are not either. People made comments about how the market dropped today, like 75 points or so was devastating. This market has been nothing like a bull market but those who own stocks want this rally to lead to another bull run like we had in late 1999 and early 2000. Do not be taken in by this market, it will not turn out to be your best friend.

We promised a preview of CSCO last night. CSCO's earnings estimates were for about 22 cents. Actual earnings before items were 23 cents and after items were 21 cents. So, you could say that they beat estimates by a penny a share--please, not again.

Even the mining stocks took it on the chin today. I have felt that mining stocks would probably go the way of the general stock market on the next down leg, at least for a while. Today's move down in the mining stocks ran counter to the metals going up. This is not a good thing for those of us looking for the opposite: mining stocks going up when the metals go down. We continue to wait for a good opportunity.

Look for the Wednesday Update in your email.

Dow Industrials: 10281.11 -103.23


Anonymous said...

i am always amazed at how companies beat estimates by a penny. are they that accurate or are they playing accounting games. i always thought that once orders came in you had to book it, even if it is by accrual method

Glenn said...

That is the major question, are they playing accounting games. Of course, I can't prove it but CSCO used to beat the number every quarter by a penny. There had to be something going on that they could consistently beat by a penny.

Orders don't have to be booked when they come in, they can be booked when they are filled. Most companies need to have the revenue line filled up so they can make their numbers for the quarter. But, many times the revenue is counterbalanced by a balance sheet item like "Net Receivables".