Monday, November 02, 2009

November Starts With a Volatile Day

Top Line: The start of November gave the bulls a breather from the heavy selling from Friday. After maybe some more upside, the sell off should continue.

As the week progresses, there are plenty of land mines for the market in the way of news. The big ones are the employment report on Friday and the Fed's news on Wednesday...ok, maybe that's not all that big, the Fed has become almost irrelevant. There are other news items including some little things like the Stanley/Black and Decker deal that was announced tonight. How will the market react to them?

Well, we are pretty sure we don't really know exactly what will happen but we do think that there is little doubt that the market wants to resolve to the downside, at least for the time being. As we see the volatility rise again, there should be some more intense down moves as we move through the next few weeks. Then we'll see how much the market wants to go down.

Today's market was very volatile as the Dow jumped out of the blocks this morning and sported a 150 point rally in the first 30 minutes. After hanging around that level for about two hours, the market decided to drop back below even over the next hour and traded around there for an hour or so. After that the Dow moved higher into the close with about a 75 point advance. To us, this was a small victory for the bears.

The market probably won't get much from the Fed on Wednesday but tonight the Australians decided to raise interest rates again. No, not much but it was an increase. The Fed doesn't have the...ah...ability to raise rates for now so we expect much the same from them this week.

Tuesday has a few elections in it. Could they move the market on Wednesday?

Anyway, the big news for the week should be the employment report on Friday. We expect the market to be lower in a couple weeks than it is now and the employment report could be a catalyst in the stair step lower.

We will be back on Wednesday evening after the Fed...

12 comments:

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