Wednesday, November 18, 2009

The Last Post

Top Line: Probably the biggest news in the market is the Update. With our last post, we hit 1000 posts and this, the 1001st is probably the last, at least for a while. We are going on an extended break.

We want to leave our last mark here by summarizing our current position on the various markets we have been keeping an eye on. Remember what day this is because these comments are only good for about a day :-)

Gold:
Here is a problem brewing. While gold has been punching higher to new all time highs, GDX has been painfully lagging. This can only mean that there should be a change in direction, from up to down. How long this decline will last is difficult to say but one would think it would be linked to the action in the dollar.

Dollar:
If you actually take a look at the dollar chart for the last two years, you would notice that the dollar was Lower last year than it is now. What we find interesting about that is all of the bad press the dollar has received over the past several weeks. Gold has exploded and the dollar gets negative media but stops going down. This "strength" in the dollar flies in the face of strong gold. GDX and the dollar confirm that gold is near a peak, at least a short term top.

Continued negative press on the dollar has probably convinced many to short the dollar. This used to be done with the Japanese yen. Rates were very low, at times negative, in Japan and the yen was going down. This caused the world to borrow yen at low rates and buy other currencies to buy stocks in those countries, which were rising. This is called a carry trade. Assuming that the dollar continues to go down and with low rates available, why not use these dollars to buy gold??? This will end badly if the dollar turns around or interest rates move up.

Treasury Bonds:
Here is another difficult market. We have expected that the stock market drop would give a lift to T-bonds. The stock market has continued to rally but, strangely, the T-bonds have not fallen, at least not much. The highest prices for the stock market and gold have not had the intended effect on T-bonds. Instead T-bonds have held their own and have given us further evidence that the stock market and gold are not on a solid upward trajectory. When will this change? It may be this week or later but there is too much evidence to ignore.

The Stock Market:
Here is where we are with the Update: This last 1000 posts have been about our take on the stock market. Our intention was to keep us honest with ourselves about how we were thinking about the current market conditions. When we look back to our early July posts and read them carefully, we can see that we missed something. Our titles even indicate that we thought a low was at hand but still we didn't take advantage of the lows at that time.

Since then we have struggled to let go of the thinking process. Our main thought is that we are much better traders than bulls. We have to get back to trading and stop trying to figure out the intermediate term. We think better in the three day time frame or less. This large move stuff is interesting but difficult to trade. We need to stick with our strengths and not try to figure out how the market will sit two or six months out.

What we do think is that the market will be much lower in two years. How does that help us trade tomorrow? We're not exactly sure. What we do know is that the way We make the best money is to trade frequently. This is not a good strategy for most people and does not make sense for a blog.

The last item is the one that troubles us the most. We are contrarian thinkers and go against the grain of the media to make our best trades. We have enjoyed the position we have taken but recently have been less interested in arguing about the stock market, trying to influence others. We think we have a good way to trade with an eye to how the market reacts to the news.

This is the most difficult thing we do...try to convince others to do things that make financial sense when all they think is that the media is right. We are convinced that we can always make money because the market participants are really not very concerned about what makes sense. Most people just want to know the market is going up before they buy (too late) and then sell when the know the market is going down (also too late). We can not change this and have decided to abandon the effort.

To the several people that have been faithful readers of the Update, we want you to know that you have kept us writing longer than we would normally have done. Without anyone reading, this really wouldn't have made much sense.

For those of you who know our email address, we would be happy to continue to stay in correspondence with you and will contact some of you on our own. We apologize for the abrupt change but we think this is the best time to discontinue our work. Life has taken us in new directions and a new chapter is now emerging which eliminates the time that would normally be spent working on this blog.

Buy Low and Sell High...not necessarily in that order.
Call if you get rich, or Put it in writing...

70 comments:

Anonymous said...

Glenn, this can't be so!!! I will very much miss your understanding and calculations on the market.. You have helped me considerably....don't know what, or who I will go to for all the help and confidence you've given me during these very trying times of this market over the past year or so. Can't thank you enough.I wish you well in your new undertakings. Diane

Anonymous said...

Hi Glenn,

Thanks for taking the time to write the blog over the years.

Pat

Charles said...

Too bad but I understand it was probably very demanding on your time. I looked forward to reading the Update and will miss it as I am sure many others will. You know my email address if you ever wish to impart some of your wisdom or insight on the market, or anything else for that matter.

Charles

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Hi,
Thanks over your writing and ideas throughout the year. hopefully this is not you last writing.

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scheng1 said...

It's time to put some faith in the Dollar.
After all, the world will not allow the Dollar to decline forever. The Gold price is crazy, and unsustainable. I think it's time to sell Gold.

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Aye, changes quite a lot, not by much, it seems. Thanks for the updates.

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